Vladimir Putin’s decision to praise President Donald Trump as a “light at the end of the tunnel” is a calculated risk that could successfully curry favor with the White House, but at the cost of further alienating traditional U.S. allies.
By building a narrative of a special Trump-Putin channel, the Russian leader feeds into the concerns of European nations that the U.S. might negotiate a new security arrangement for the continent without their full participation. This can create wedges within the Western alliance.
This strategy is tailored specifically to Trump, who has shown an appreciation for personal praise from world leaders and a willingness to challenge long-standing alliances. Putin is betting that the benefits of a direct line to Trump outweigh the risks of antagonizing Paris, Berlin, or London.
This move comes as Trump’s own ultimatum on Ukraine is putting pressure on the transatlantic relationship. Putin’s praise adds another layer of complexity, forcing European leaders to wonder if they are becoming spectators in a drama being directed by Washington and Moscow.
